Braumoeller, Bear F. (2013) The Great Powers and the International System: Systemic Theory in Empirical Perspective (Cambridge Studies in International Relations). New York: Cambridge University Press

Abstract: Do great leaders make history? Or are they compelled to act by historical circumstance? This debate has remained unresolved since Thomas Carlyle and Karl Marx framed it in the mid-nineteenth century, yet implicit answers inform our policies and our views of history. In this book, Professor Bear F. Braumoeller argues persuasively that both perspectives are correct: leaders shape the main material and ideological forces of history that subsequently constrain and compel them. His studies of the Congress of Vienna, the interwar period, and the end of the Cold War illustrate this dynamic, and the data he marshals provide systematic evidence that leaders both shape and are constrained by the structure of the international system.


Archive notes:

The Great Powers and the International System took a long time to write and involved quite a few spur-of-the-moment tests, recodings, and plots. During the writing of it, I changed econometrics packages, from Stata to R. As a result, the replication archive looks less like a single, clean file that smoothly spits out all of the desired results, and more like a tangled rat's-nest created by a particularly manic rat. I'm sorry about that.

By way of penance, I've gone through the book and connected every table and figure to the command file that produced it. The result can be found in the Guide below.

Before executing these commands, users will need to install a few custom commands. In Stata, enter "ssc install estout, replace" at the command line, as well as the following commands:
    
      net from http://www.stata-press.com/data/gps/ml3/
      net install ml3_ado
      ml3_ado
      net get ml_data

They provide the mysureg command that is used in the data analysis files. In R, the packages sandwich, strucchange, and hmisc should be installed, along with their dependencies. (There might be more R packages that need to be installed, but these are the only ones that raised red flags when I ran through the replications myself.)

Thanks very much for your interest in this project. If you have any questions, run across any errors, or want to discuss any issues, please don't hesitate to contact me at braumoeller.1@osu.edu.

Best regards,


Professor Bear F. Braumoeller
The Ohio State University
July 3, 2013


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Guide to Figures, Tables, and Replication Material

Chapter 3

Figure 3.1
   Estimates of salience of distribution of capabilities, 19th century
      19cen-wPowDst.R
      
Figure 3.2
   Comparison of average of power resources, all states, all periods
      GreatPowerComparisonBW.R

Table 3.2
   Structures and agents: reciprocal impact
      19th century: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, F-tests after mysureg commands
      Interwar: 1915.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after sureg commands
      Cold War: 1945.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after mysureg commands
      
Figure 3.4
   Reducible to realism?
      Realist-graphs.R

Table 3.3
   Correlations among error terms, all systems
      19th century: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, matrix after mysureg command
      Interwar: 1915.dataanalyze.do, matrix after mysureg command
      Cold War: 1945.dataanalyze.do,  matrix after sureg command

Figure 3.6
   European system during the early Vienna period
      vectorfield-book.q
      
Figure 3.7
   Interwar period
      vectorfield.q

Figure 3.8
   Cold War
      vectorfieldCW.q

Figure 3.9
   Elite-constituency graphs
      19cenDensities2.R

Figure 3.10
   Elite-constituency graphs
      1915Densities2.R

Figure 3.11
   Elite-constituency graphs
      1945Densities2.R

Figure 3.12
   MOSUM tests
      19cenMaster.q (which requires 19cenImport.q, 19cenOLS.q, 19cenStrucChange.q, 19cenGraphs.q)
      1915.Graphs.q
      1945.Graphs.q

Figure 4.1
   Ideal points
      Viennavcchart.R

Figure 4.3
   Public opinion on England and France
      Isol-opinion.R

Figure 4.5
   Expenditures and warheads
      EastWest.R

Figure 4.6
   Expenditures and ideology
      EastWest.R


Appendix

Table B.1
   Ratio of correct to incorrect predictions
      19th century
         OLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, using `bitesti' command
         3SLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, using `bitesti' command
         FIML: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, using `bitesti' command
      Interwar
         OLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do, using `bitesti' command
         3SLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do, using `bitesti' command
      Cold War
         OLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do, using `bitesti' command
         3SLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do, using `bitesti' command  * Some tests just display tally/total; did bitesti by hand
         FIML: 1945.dataanalyze.do, using `bitesti' command
         
Table B.2
   Equation-level statistical significance
      19th century
         OLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, F-tests after OLS (Newey) commands
         3SLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, F-tests after sureg commands
         FIML: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do, F-tests after mysureg commands
      Interwar
         OLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after OLS (Newey) commands
         3SLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after sureg commands
      Cold War
         OLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after OLS (Newey) commands
         3SLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after sureg commands
         FIML: 1945.dataanalyze.do, F-tests after mysureg commands


Table B.3
   Correlations among error terms, 19th-century, 3SLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do after sureg
   Correlations among error terms, 19th-century, FIML: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do after mysureg
   
Table B.4
   Correlations among error terms, interwar, 3SLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do after sureg

Table B.5
   Correlations among error terms, Cold War, 3SLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do after sureg
   Correlations among error terms, Cold War, FIML: 1945.dataanalyze.do after mysureg


Table B.7
   19cen, OLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do
   19cen, 3SLS: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do (under SUREG)
   19cen, FIML: 19cen.dataanalyzeA.do (under mysureg)
   Interwar, OLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do
   Interwar, 3SLS: 1915.dataanalyze.do (under SUREG)
   Cold War, OLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do
   Cold War, 3SLS: 1945.dataanalyze.do (under SUREG)
   Cold War, FIML: 1945.dataanalyze.do (under mysureg)

